Angry Greta

 

Angry Greta

Hell is here soon

Out of balance, positive feedback hell:

Temperature rise > more CO2 emits from oceans > another temperature rise due to more CO2 > even more CO2 emits from oceans > another temperature rise > BOOM hell.

 

My intuition: warmer is better, start to worry when it will get cooler

 

Everybody knows that we ruined the Earth and Earth is getting hotter. In 12 years, it’ll be over. Well there are some, in fact quite many, who doesn’t know that for sure, but they are Righties, they took the Idiot pill. We shouldn’t count them.

Righties on the other hand think that global warming is a Lefties trend. Frighten story that resembles a logic explanation but as usual, suffers from some loose ends in the details. Probably leads to large scale disaster, from poverty up to concentration camp and mass bloodshed.

But wait why it is political at all?

The hole in the Ozon

 the chlorine is free to repeat this two-step cycle

A single chlorine atom is able to react with an average of 100,000 ozone molecules before it is removed from the catalytic cycle.

 

No politic because there is an explanation.

 

Climate is much more complex, a multi scale physical and mathematical problem.

Seconds, days, years, tens of years, millions of years scales.

Energy spills between the scales. So, there is no way to solve one scale independently from other scales. There is however ways to approximate one scale, independently from other scales, for short period of time, where “short” meaning, depend on the scale.

Days

Naive model:

Water evaporates in the equator and goes up with hot air.

Air close to the equator comes to fill the place of the removed hot air.

A flow of hot air from equator to poles, on upper layer, and cold air from poles to equator on earth surface.

On its way to the poles water cool down and rain falls.

Note that molecule from the north, mixed with those from the south, only at the equator. So it may be the case that north hemisphere is colder than south hemisphere or vice versa.  

 

But but all the air from around the equator is concentrating in the poles, too windy in the pole and we didn’t even say Coriolis, effect of rotation. Two circles is an unstable pattern that doesn’t really exist.  

At point B tangent speed toward east is larger than tangent speed in point A.

A car moving in constant speed from A to B ended up with larger tangent speed.

That is the car earth speed was constant but its space velocity was accelerated due to Coriolis force.

 

Air on Earth surface rotates with the Earth due to friction.

Just above Earth surface, there is still friction between layers of air, but the air legs behind Earth surface.

An air molecule moving from equator to the North pole will move in a right curve line as seen from earth.

A molecule moving from North Pole to equator will also take a right curve. That is on northern hemisphere, air molecule under Coriolis force always take right curve, in other words goes in circles. It is easier to understand this circle behavior when looking in 2 dimensions. 

A point travel in constant radial speed, above a disk, from disk center to its peripheral makes a right curve as seen from the disk. Why curve and not a straight line? Looking from North Pole, and flatten Earth. The disk is rotating counter clockwise (from west to east). Molecule above center of disk (North Pole), moving in constant radial speed to disk peripheral (equator), is moving West (like the sun) and South, with accelerating West speed. Accelerated West speed makes a right curve, rather than a straight line.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_force.

On the opposite direction, toward the center, West speed is slow down, which again makes a right curve.

With some hand waving, we say that the naive one circle of air breaks into 3 circles, due to Coriolis force. Convection circle width is about 10-15 km. At 15km height we can expect flow in the opposite direction than flow on earth surface.

 

 We get tropic zone under the equator circle, a desert band. Golf streams in the oceans, clockwise in Northern hemisphere and counter clockwise in Southern hemisphere. Most of the north is step able, and most of the south is water, may be this is part of the explanation way we see more desert band in the north. 

More interesting patterns due to Coriolis force.

Hurrican 10:10AM August 27, 2011,  two hours after making landfall at Cape Lookout.  Cape Lookout National Seashore, U.S. National Park Service, NP Gallery.

Water has larger heat capacitance than shore. At end of night sea is warmer than shore.  Warm air raise from the sea and replaced with cooler air from the shore. In afternoon direction is reversed, shore is warmer and we have the Breeze.

Seconds

Partial Differential Equations PDE

t = time, ρ density, μ viscosity (friction) p pressure: scalars. u velocity, g gravity: vectors.

Operators are vectors or matrix. Non linearity comes from u multiply by gradient of u.

 

This is essentially Momentum conservation low (or maybe Newton second low, I don’t know) applied on continuum. 

 

Solution with numerical analysis of very simple initial and boundary conditions requires large parallel computer.

Half of the academy is busy solving, or better said approximating, different special case of this equation.

Temperature is indirectly represented here via density.

Simple cases: flow via pipe, flow via canal, explain layers structure of rotational flow.

 

 Reduce to one dimensional: Burger equation

No simple analytic solution must use numerical analysis. Describe traffic shock in traffic jam, when traffic light turns green.

 

“Drone for everyone vision” depends on efficient air pushing, i.e. turbulence free. Wings, Turbine or whatever will need to push the air without wasting energy on turbulences and also minimize air friction. Should achieve, better than birds, efficiency. Designing of such system relay heavily on solving above Navier-Stocks equation, for the condition of drone in air.

Years

El ninio: years of crazy weather in southern hemisphere.

No practical way to measure average temperature. Measurement of North pole ice area is easier.

Minimum at 2012 but then goes up. Average goes down. But what about the South pole

So maybe only the Northern hemisphere is warmer and the Southern hemisphere is cooler.

Separation between north and south may exists, as mention in the naive pattern we saw at the beginning.

Not exactly global warming.

 

Energy spills between seconds, days, years and tens of years scales.

It is too complex. No one knows if Earth is getting warmer or cooler or just fluctuating.

Optional influencers on Earth temperature:

·         Sun get cooler in million years scale with fluctuation fashion, maybe we should be worry for the fluctuation dip. Someone please measure average sun radiation.

·         The inner iron core of Earth is also getting cooler with fluctuation. Again, we should worry about cooling not warming. Uranium bulk in middle of the earth may get hotter. CO2 with all other greenhouse gasses are accounted for 30 degrees only. The other 260 degrees comes from Sun, iron core and Uranium core inside the hot iron core.

·         Greenhouse gasses

·         Who knows?

Warmer is better

Let’s assume it does get warmer. In first glance it has more pros than cons.

·         Average temperature away from earth surface is -273, I’m freezing just think about it.

·         Reduce deserts. Warmer means more water goes up thus more rain goes down

·         Greenland, Antarctica, Siberia, Sahara desert and more will become warmer and habitable.

·         Shorter way from Asia to America via the North pole

As for the cons you hear them all the time, no need to repeat them here.

 

My impression is that pros are easy winner. Cheer up God is with us. Global warming is the solution not the problem.

 

The rest of this document explains, based on climetists data, why it isn’t likely that mankind makes our planate warmer, if it at all.

 

 

 

How atmosphere keep us warmer and what Carbon De Oxide got to do with it?

How came Carbone dioxide doesn’t block the sun light and thus make us cooler.

Air including carbon dioxide doesn’t absorb much energy (vibrate) from visible light around 600 nm.

Earth ground does absorb energy and also reflects energy. The absorbed energy emits from earth, like from any other hot object, but in different wave length, Infra-red, which is few um, left to the scale above, (um = 1000nm).

It so happen, that Carbon dioxide does vibrate when exposed to Infra-red light. Yet Oxygen and Nitrogen still don’t absorb Infra-red energy. So, in spite Oxygen is 18% and Nitrogen is 80% of the air, it is Carbon dioxide (less than 0.5%) that catches all the attention. Once energy is absorbed in Carbon dioxide molecule, it is emitted to all direction where one of the directions is back to mother Earth. Hence keep more of the energy for longer time and in general higher temperature.   

What is heavier Air or Water?

Clearly by conservation of result law, air is heavier then water, just look at the view. In other words CNOF

 

name	Protons	Atomic Weight	name	Atomic Weight
C	6	12	C----
N	7	14	N2	28
O	8	16	O2	32
F	9	18	F2	36
			H2O	18
			CO2	44
Uzon			O3	48

 

How come Oil is lighter than Water? It must be something to do with heavier molecule than water but takes more space due to some inter molecule interaction

Oxygen has 6 electrons in its external shell and wants to reach to the Holly 8. Sharing 1 electron with each Hydrogen and pretends to itself both electrons are his. Hydrogen also pretends his 2 electrons external shell is full, and all are happy. H—O—H and 4 non connecting electrons around the Oxygen is not stable. The sharing electron attracts stronger to the bigger Oxygen nucleus leaving the Hydrogen a bit positive. Oxygen non connecting electrons attract the slightly positive Hydrogen and the straight symmetric construct collapses into a more stable shape as above.

Varuum Kababoom we have liquid water, Microwave and life in general.

Yet again cheer up, God is on our side

Heavier Oxygen (32) defuses into water (18) surface and Fish knows how to dig Oxygen between Water molecules. Lunch is safe.

 

This is a good point to note that CO2 is the good guy. Organic means made of Carbon. Protein, Fat, Carbonate us in general and all life on planet Earth are made of Carbon compounds. The Philodendron in the Technion swimming pool is stick to the wall, no connection to ground; it is all made of air.

And where this Carbon comes from? Not from miners, it is Carbon from the CO2 in the air that life is made of. CO2 (44) defuses into oceans water (18). For every Molecule of CO2 in the air there are about 50 in the water. Well who count, in God we trust. God prepared tens of Billions of tones reservoir in ocean bottom that can supports life from creation till eternity. Depending on water temperature small portion of the CO2 from the water evaporates up to compensate the CO2 that defused down. In some ocean areas, balance is up and in other it is down. Overall balance seems to be stable. How do we know? Well you can count on the environmentalists that if CO2 was really out of balance, you would know about it. Even the environmentalists, those who know about Carbon cycle, admit Carbon cycle is in balance, yet keep talking on how much CO2, Human and Cows emitting, and never talk about CO2 emitting from the ocean.

Most of the sites that deal with climate change are Greta style. So, when I found an internet site that does mention also the CO2 absorbing in the ocean, I realize it is worth looking at. It still predicts global warming but for a change use some loose reasoning and data.

 

https://jancovici.com/en/climate-change/ghg-and-carbon-cycle/what-gases-are-greenhouse-gases/

If we do not bother about the origin (natural or anthropic) of the greenhouse gases, the one that generate the highest greenhouse effect is….water vapor

Thanks God. Without greenhouse gas effect, temperature would be 30 degree Celsius less.

Bad for Israel. End life for Romania. But that’s OK you are welcome anytime. CO2 makes about half of the other gases above that is CO2 is responsible for about 5 degree Celsius, 15% of greenhouse gas effect

 

CO2 concentration increase from 0.3% into 0.4%. Measured in one point only in the world, quoted by the entire internet sites. Could be local increase due to more traffic in the area.

30% increase or 1.5 ºC

Mauna Loa, on the island of Hawaii

 

https://jancovici.com/en/climate-change/ghg-and-carbon-cycle/wont-the-carbon-sinks-absorb-the-extra-co2/

So how much CO2 we do generate? Arrows are Giga Tons per? Well maybe per year. Red for our contribution, black for “natural” at year 1750. But wait, since when we aren’t natural anymore?

Is there a? Where is AV when we need them? 

Ocean functions as compensator for any imbalance of CO2 in the air. Flux of CO2 into the ocean is solely depends on CO2 percentage in the air. That is 1% increase in CO2 in the air, results with 1% increase of CO2 influx into the ocean. In 250 years, ocean reservoir was increased by only 100 Giga tones, 1/371 from its value in year 1750. It doesn’t make sense that compensation ability of the ocean changed due to so little addition. I don’t know how reliable above numbers are, but they are collected from climetists (alarmist) site, and climetists must contradict above argument before keep alarming. OK let’s try; temperature today is 1.5ºC higher, where “average” temperature is 15 ºC, that is 10% increase. Assuming linearity 10% more CO2 exits from the ocean. But 30% more CO2 goes into the ocean. So 20% of 70 or 14 Giga tones per year. That on each 7 years we should have additional 100 Giga tones on ocean bottom. That is not 250 years only 7, looks like a . However this site collected some data, numbers are obviously rough estimations and amount of additional CO2 on ocean bottom is simply made up. So this bug in their calculation/data means nothing. It just proves they didn’t bother to close the ends. I must admit I didn’t read everything in this site, budget was over. Maybe there is a better explanation, go find it.

 

Positive feedback hell: “temperature rise > more CO2 emits from oceans > another temperature rises due to more CO2 > even more CO2 emits from oceans > another temperature rise > BOOM hell”. But there is a negative feedback that compensate at least partly the positive feedback. Only 15% of greenhouse effect comes from CO2. So even if CO2 in atmosphere will double, average temperature will raise by 5 ºC. As a result, more rain will fall on the continents and temperature will cool down. Yet another trick of God to keep us alive.

 

A real answer should be quantitative but everything said about climate is really qualitative. Even when numbers do mentioned, it’s far fetch estimations. Climate is too complicated, we can’t be sure, but it is very unlikely that mankind has anything to do with climate changing and also, we can’t be sure if it is really getting warmer or cooler.

 

My intuition: warmer is better, start to worry when it will get cooler

 

Not shown in above figure, is large Carbone reservoir namely: Limestone rocks, because not much exchange of CO2, with Limestone rocks. CO₂ + CaSiO₄ → CaCO₃ + SiO₂

Slightly acidic rain water brings dissolved CO₂ to the surface of fresh igneous rocks, which contain calcium-bearing silicate minerals (whose chemical formula is CaSiO₄). In Urey's equation, the calcium in the rocks and carbon dioxide in the water combine to make CaCO₃ (calcium carbonate in the limestone rocks) while the silicate is released to make SiO₂ (silica in opal and chert minerals)

 

https://chemistry.stackexchange.com/questions/43498/why-does-ozone-being-heavier-than-air-not-settle-down

 

Ozone is not stable compound. In higher atmosphere level stronger radiation always generates Ozon O3 from Oxygen O2. Then Ozone separated into Oxygen again. That is all Ozone layer that protect us from deadly Sun radiation is actually a dynamic layer. Yet another chance to thank God.

 

And if you want to see anti climate change views just search google with:

Science matter and Climatists

E.g.

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/07/11/facts-omitted-by-climatists/

 

What’s wrong with Greta? Environment attention can’t be focus on more than one item. Currently on the wrong item. Probably plastic waste is a serious issue but not much attention is left for it.

Yiftach Maayan

yiftach.blog@gmail.com